An overview of citations to my work is available at my Scholar Google profile

See also my profile at the research portal of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

Journal Articles

Mahumane, G.M. and P. Mulder (2016), Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique, Energy Economics 59, 275-289.

Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model, which we name MOZLEAP, is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure, vehicle ownership and energy intensity. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. We discuss the opportunities and challenges that this resource wealth poses for the country.

Wan, J., K. Baylis and P. Mulder (2015), Trade-Facilitated Technology Spillovers in Energy Productivity Convergence Processes across EU Countries, Energy Economics 48, 253–264. 

This empirical paper tests for trade-facilitated spillovers in the convergence of energy productivity across 16 European Union (EU) countries from 1995 to 2005. One might anticipate that by inducing specialization, trade limits the potential for convergence in energy productivity. Conversely, by inducing competition and knowledge diffusion, trade may spur sectors to greater energy productivity. Unlike most previous work on convergence, we explain productivity dynamics from cross-country interactions at a detailed sector level and apply a spatial panel data approach to explicitly account for trade-flow related spatial effects in the convergence analysis. Our study confirms the existence of convergence in manufacturing energy productivity, caused by efficiency improvements in lagging countries, while undermined by increasing international differences in sector structure. Further, we find that trade flows explain 30 to 40 percent of the unobserved variation in energy productivity. Trade continues to explain the unobserved variation in energy productivity even after accounting for geographic proximity. Last, we find that those countries and sectors with higher dependence on trade both have higher energy productivity growth and a higher rate of convergence, further implying that trade can enhance energy productivity. Thus, unlike concerns that trade may spur a ‘race to the bottom’, we find that promoting trade may help stimulate energy efficiency improvements across countries.

Mulder, P. (2015), International Specialization, Structural Change and the Evolution of Manufacturing Energy Intensity in OECD Countries, The Energy Journal  36(3), pp. 111-136.

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We present new evidence that changes in sector structure explain a considerable and increasing part of Manufacturing energy intensity trends across 19 OECD countries. We show that cross-country convergence of Manufacturing energy intensity levels is caused by efficiency improvements in lagging countries, while undermined by increasing international differences in sector structure. Particularly, we find that efficiency-driven catching-up processes only began to dominate the diverging impact of structural changes after 1995, reversing gradual cross-country divergence of Manufacturing energy intensity levels into rapid convergence. Subsequently, we link sector structure dynamics to changing global production patterns under influence of international trade and specialization. We conclude that increasing trade and market integration helped reducing energy productivity gaps across countries, despite the contribution of increasing specialization to growing cross-country variation in sector structure. These trends are mainly driven by energy-intensive sectors, while various countries specialize in sectors for which they do not have a comparative energy productivity advantage.
Data sets available

Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot and B. Pfeiffer (2014), Dynamics and determinants of energy intensity in the service sector: A cross-country analysis, 1980–2005, Ecological Economics 100, pp. 1-15.

We present a detailed analysis of energy intensity developments across 23 service sectors in 18 OECD countries over the period 1980−2005. We find that the shift towards a service economy has contributed to lower overall energy intensity levels in the OECD, but this contribution would have been considerably larger if the service sector had realized the same degree of energy efficiency improvements as the manufacturing sector. In most OECD countries energy intensity levels in services tend to decrease relatively slow, especially after 1995. If we control this trend for the impact of structural changes within the services sector – by means of a decomposition analysis – we find that in about one-third of the OECD countries, energy intensity levels in services have increased over time. The impact of structural changes on aggregate energy intensity dynamics in services has increased considerably after 1995, highlighting a relatively poor energy efficiency performance within a wide range of service sectors. We show that the introduction of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) plays a potentially important role here. Using spatial panel data regression analysis, we find a limited role for energy prices in explaining variation in energy productivity, while climate conditions clearly impact energy productivity.

Andadari, R.K., Mulder, P. and P. Rietveld (2014), Energy poverty reduction by fuel switching. Impact evaluation of the LPG conversion program in Indonesia, Energy Policy 66, pp. 436–449

In low- and middle-income countries, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) can be an attractive alternative to the widespread use of traditional kerosene. Not only is LPG a relatively clean, safe and cost-effective fuel for households, its large-scale adoption also reduces the heavy burden of kerosene consumption subsidies on government budgets. Against this background, we evaluate the impact of a large government program to substitute LPG for kerosene in Indonesia. Using a household survey across urban, suburban and rural regions we find that this program was very effective in causing a large scale shift from kerosene to LPG. This shift was positively influenced by level of education, household size and household income. Contradicting the energy-ladder model, the LPG program, reinforced by an increase in the price of kerosene, led to increased stacking of fuels, including increasing consumption of both electricity and traditional biomass. In addition, our analysis shows that the LPG program failed to substantially reduce the overall number of energy-poor people, but it has been effective in alleviating extreme energy-poverty. Finally, we find that medium and higher income households in suburban areas benefited most from the LPG program.

Pfeiffer, B. and P. Mulder (2013), Explaining the Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technology in Developing Countries, Energy Economics 40, pp. 285–296

In this paper we study the diffusion of non-hydro renewable energy (NHRE) technologies for electricity generation across 108 developing countries between 1980 and 2010. We use two-stage estimation methods to identify the determinants behind the choice of whether or not to adopt NHRE as well as about the amount of electricity to produce from renewable energy sources. We find that NHRE diffusion accelerates with the implementation of economic and regulatory instruments, higher per capita income and schooling levels, and stable, democratic regimes. In contrast, increasing openness and aid, institutional and strategic policy support programs, growth of electricity consumption, and high fossil fuel production appear to delay NHRE diffusion. Furthermore, we find that a diverse energy mix increases the probability of NHRE adoption. Finally, we find a weak support for a positive influence of the Kyoto Protocol on NHRE diffusion and no evidence for any influence resulting from financial sector development.

Bakens, J., P. Mulder and P. Nijkamp (2013), Economic impacts of cultural diversity in The Netherlands: productivity, utility and sorting, Journal of Regional Science 53, pp. 8-36.  

This paper identifies the impact of cultural diversity on local economies, by explaining spatial disparities in wages and housing prices across Dutch cities using unique individual panel data of homeowners during the period 1999 and 2008. We distinguish between the effects of spatial sorting based on individual heterogeneity, interactions-based productivity effects, and consumer amenities while controlling for interactions between the labor and housing market. In line with previous literature, we find a positive effect of cultural diversity on average housing prices. After controlling for spatial sorting, the effect of cultural diversity on housing prices is negative. The negative impact of cultural diversity on local housing markets is likely driven by a causal effect between the presence of immigrants and neighborhood quality that outweighs a positive effect of immigrant-induced diversity in consumption goods.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2013), Dutch sectoral energy intensity developments in international perspective, 1987–2005, Energy Policy 52, pp. 501-512.

This paper makes use of a new dataset to investigate energy intensity developments in the Netherlands over the period 1987–2005. The dataset allows for a comparison with 18 other OECD countries. A key feature of our analysis is that we combine a cross-country perspective with a high level of sectoral detail, covering 49 sectors. Particularly innovative is our evaluation of energy intensity developments in a wide range of Service sectors. We find that across sectors, energy intensity levels in the Netherlands on average decreased only marginally, and increased in Services. This performance is in general worse than the OECD average, especially between 1987 and 1995. Changes in the sectoral composition of the economy play an important role in explaining aggregate trends. In the Manufacturing sector, about half of the efficiency improvements were undone by a shift towards a more energy-intensive industry structure. In contrast, in the Service sector efficiency decreased, which was undone for about one third by a shift towards a less energy-intensive sector structure.
Data sets available

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2012), Structural change and convergence of energy intensity across OECD countries, 1970–2005, Energy Economics 34, pp. 1910–1921

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This paper uses new and unique data derived from a consistent framework of national accounts to compute and evaluate energyintensity developments across 18 OECDcountries and 50 sectors over the period 1970–2005. We find that acrosscountriesenergyintensity levels tend to decrease in most Manufacturing sectors. In the Service sector, energyintensity decreases at a relatively slow rate, with diverse trends across sub-sectors. A decomposition analysis reveals that changes in the sectoral composition of the economy explain a considerable and increasing part of aggregate energyintensity dynamics. A convergence analysis reveals that only after 1995 cross-country variation in aggregate energyintensity levels clearly tends to decrease, driven by a strong and robust trend break in Manufacturing and enhanced convergence in Services. Moreover, we find evidence for the hypothesis that across sectors lagging countries are catching-up with leading countries, with rates of convergence that are on average higher in Services than in Manufacturing. Aggregate convergence patterns are almost exclusively caused by convergence of within-sector energyintensity levels, and not by convergence of the sectoral composition of economies.
Data sets available

Mulder, P. and Tembe, J. (2008), Rural electrification in an imperfect world: a case study from Mozambique. Energy Policy 36, pp. 2785–94.

Electricity is universally recognized as a necessary, although not sufficient, requirement for social and economic development. However, increasing access to electricity in developing countries has proven to be difficult and expensive, particularly in rural areas. In this article, we analyze the dynamics of the relationship between electricity and socio-economic development by means of a cost–benefit analysis of a typical rural electrification project in Mozambique, assessing the impact of electricity on households, education, agro-business, commerce, and the public sector. We show that rural electrification can be commercially viable and cause structural transformation in rural areas within a short period of time. Finally, illustrated by the actual policy practice in Mozambique, we argue that low institutional quality is a key barrier to promote increased access to electricity for the poor.
Data sets available

Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot (2007), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, Environmental and Resource Economics, 36, pp. 85-11

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This paper empirically investigates the development of cross-country differences in energy- and labour productivity. The analysis is performed at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970–1997. A σ-convergence analysis reveals that the development over time of the cross-country variation in productivity performance differs across sectors as well as across different levels of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. Cross-country variation of productivity levels is typically larger for energy than for labour. A β-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states. Energy prices and wages are shown to positively affect energy- and labour-productivity growth, respectively. We also find evidence for the importance of economies of scale, whereas the investment share, openness and specialization play only a modest role in explaining cross-country variation in energy- and labour-productivity growth.

Miketa, A. and P. Mulder (2005), Energy-Productivity across Developed and Developing Countries in 10 Manufacturing Sectors: Patterns of Growth and Convergence, Energy Economics  27, pp. 429-453

This paper provides an empirical analysis of energy-productivity convergence across 56 developed and developing countries, in 10 manufacturing sectors, for the period 1971–1995. We find that, except for the non-ferrous metals sector, cross-country differences in absolute energy-productivity levels tend to decline, particularly in the less energy-intensive industries. Testing for the catch-up hypothesis using panel data confirms that in all manufacturing sectors energy-productivity growth is, in general, relatively high in countries that initially lag behind in terms of energy-productivity levels. At the same time, cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance seem to be persistent; convergence is found to be local rather than global, with countries converging to different steady states and several failing to catch up. Finally, we find that country-specific factors, such as energy price and investment ratio, do explain the observed cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance, but only to a very limited extent.

Mulder, P. (2004), NEMO: CPB’s energievraagmodel tussen top-down and bottom-up (‘NEMO: CPB’s energy demand model between top-downand bottom-up’), Kwartaalschrift Economie; 1(2), pp. 131-153

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Dit artikel doet verslag van het doorrekenen van vier beleidsscenario’s met behulp van NEMO, het Nederlandse energievraagmodel van het Centraal Planbureau (CPB). Uit de modelberekeningen blijkt dat een emissieheffing op CO2 tot aanzienlijke effecten in termen van energiebesparing kan leiden, terwijl de effecten van een investeringssubsidie en een rentabiliteitsmaatregel naar verwachting zeer beperkt zullen zijn. Deze conclusies zijn echter gebonden aan de beperkte mogelijkheden om genoemde beleidsmaatregelen in NEMO expliciet door te rekenen. De belangrijkste reden hiervoor is dat NEMO een top-down model is waarin micro-economische en technologische bottom-up gegevens over technologieën noodzakelijkerwijs slechts op gestileerde wijze zijn opgenomen via geschatte trendparameters en elasticiteiten. De belangrijkste toegevoegde waarde van NEMO is dat het, door de koppeling met het economische bedrijfstakkenmodel ATHENA, geschikt is voor een analyse van het effect van milieubeleidsmaatregelen op het energiegebruik en de energievoorziening, alsook op de (macro-economische) kosten en de eventuele verschuiving in de sectorstructuur van de Nederlandse economie.

Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot and M.W. Hofkes (2003), Explaining Slow Diffusion of Energy-Saving Technologies. A vintage model with returns to diversity and learning-by-using, Resource and Energy Economics 25, pp.105-126.

This paper studies the adoption and diffusion of energy-saving technologies in a vintage model. An important characteristic of the model is that vintages are complementary: there are returns to diversity of using a mix of vintages. We analyse how diffusion patterns and adoption behaviour are affected by complementarity and learning-by-using. It is shown that the stronger the complementarity between different vintages and the stronger the learning-by-using, the longer it takes before firms scrap old vintages. We argue that this is a relevant part of the explanation for the observed slow diffusion of energy-saving technologies. Finally, we show that an energy price tax reduces energy consumption, because it speeds up the diffusion of new energy-saving technologies and induces substitution from capital to labour.

Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot and M.W. Hofkes (2003), Economic Growth and Technological Change. A comparison of insights from a neo-classical and evolutionary perspective, Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 69, pp. 110-134

Over the last two decades, dissatisfaction with the traditional Solow-Swan model of economic growth resulted in two new classes of models of economic growth and technological change: neo-classical endogenous growth models, and evolutionary growth models. The first class of models has been labeled endogenous, because of its key feature of endogenizing technological change. The second class of models endogenizes technological change as well, but according to an evolutionary view on economic growth and technological change. In this paper we discuss the insights from both the neo-classical and the evolutionary perspectives. It is argued that in evolutionary models technological and behavioral diversity, uncertainty, path dependency, and irreversibility are elaborated in a more sophisticated and explicit way than in neo-classical growth models. However, this level of microeconomic diversity comes at a certain price. Due to the complexity of the models, which preclude analytical tractability, the mechanisms behind the aggregate dynamics are not always clearly exposed. In addition, it will be argued that the neo-classical and the evolutionary approach are converging in the Schumpeterian framework. The latter framework is developed in both classes of models as a means for theorizing on technological change. A challenging task for further research is to combine the fruitful insights of both the neo-classical and the evolutionary approach to improve our understanding of complex processes of technological change in relation to other micro- and macroeconomic processes.

Den Butter, F.A.G., H.L.F. de Groot and P. Mulder (2003), Energie en Arbeid: Vrienden of Vijanden? (‘Energy and Labour: Friends or Foes?’), Economisch Statistische Berichten , 88, no.4407, pp. 295-297

Zit er tussen energie- en arbeidsproductiviteit een afruil of stimuleren ze elkaar juist? Dit artikel biedt een empirische analyse van de ontwikkeling van de arbeids- en energieproductiviteit in Nederland. Daarbij komt de vraag aan de orde hoe arbeids- en energieproductiviteit zich op sectoraal niveau hebben ontwikkeld, zowel in absoluut als relatief opzicht.

Mulder, P. and J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (2001), Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, Growth and Change, 32, pp. 110-134

Sustainable development has become the dominant concept in the study of interactions between the economy and the biophysical environment, as well as a generally accepted goal of environmental policy. So far, economists have predominantly applied standard or neo-classical theory to environmental economic problems. In this article it will be argued that to fully understand a transformation of the economic system towards sustainability, standard environmental economics needs to be complemented by an evolutionary approach, that focuses the attention on irreversible, path-dependent change and long-run mutual selection of environmental and economic processes and systems. The article provides an overview of the main existing evolutionary contributions to environmental economics. Furthermore, a number of research directions of an evolutionary approach in environmental economics are discussed. It is suggested that such an approach should go beyond evolutionary theories of technical change, which dominate evolutionary economics so far, by including co-evolution of economy and environment, sustainable consumption, endogenous preference change, and climate change modeling.
Books

Florax, R.J.G.M., H.L.F. de Groot and P. Mulder (2011). Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology: Trends, Investment Behaviour and Policy Design, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

This innovative book explores the adoption of energy-saving technologies and their impact on energy efficiency improvements. It contains a mix of theoretical and empirical contributions, and combines and compares economic and physical indicators to monitor and analyse trends in energy efficiency. The authors pay considerable attention to empirical research on the determinants of energy-saving investment including uncertainty, energy-price volatility and subsidies. They also discuss the role of energy modelling in policy design and the potential effect of energy policies on technology diffusion in energy-extensive sectors. Written from a multi-disciplinary perspective, this book will appeal to academics and graduates in the areas of energy-saving technologies, energy economics and natural resource economics as well as policy-makers – particularly those in energy policy. ‘Increasing energy efficiency is important because it offers the prospect of partly solving our climate change and energy security problems without pain. This book sheds further light on the issue, focusing on energy-extensive economic activities which, by sheer volume, collectively use a substantial amount of energy. That simple fact alone makes this book worthwhile, but there are many other gems.’ – Richard Tol, The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Ireland ‘This book rightly focuses on energy efficiency for the less energy-intensive sectors of our economy. In many industrialized countries the share of these sectors is growing, yet little attention is paid to energy, either by companies themselves, or by policy-makers or scientists. While focusing mainly on experiences in the Netherlands, this book makes an excellent contribution to the study of these sectors and, most importantly, initiates more comprehensive multi-disciplinary analyses.’ – Ernst Worrell, Utrecht University, The Netherlands

Mulder, P. (2005). The Economics of Technology Diffusion and Energy Efficiency. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Technological change plays a crucial role in realizing energy efficiency improvements and, therefore, in ameliorating the conflict between economic growth and environmental quality. However, the diffusion of new technologies can prove a costly and lengthy process, meaning that many firms do not invest in best-practice technologies. The author offers important new explanations for this energy-efficiency paradox. ‘This book is a path-breaking work' – Vernon W. Ruttan, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, US
Chapters in Books

Mulder, P., Florax, R.J.G.M. and H.L.F. de Groot (2011). A Spatial Perspective on Global Energy Productivity Trends, in: R.J.G.M. Florax, H.L.F. de Groot and P. Mulder (eds), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology: Trends, Investment Behaviour and Policy Design, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2011.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2011). Energy Productivity Performance Across 14 OECD Countries: The Role of Energy-Extensive Sectors, in: R.J.G.M. Florax, H.L.F. de Groot and P. Mulder (eds), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology: Trends, Investment Behaviour and Policy Design, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 201.

Bucuane, A.J. and P. Mulder (2009), Prospects for an electricity tax, in: Arndt, C. and F. Tarp (eds.), Taxation in a Low-Income Economy – The case of Mozambique, pp.302-327. London/NewYork: Routledge.

In this paper we explore the arguments, the appropriate level and tax base as well as potential revenues of a tax on electricity consumption by mega projects and a tax on electricity production, respectively. We argue that mega projects offer a good opportunity to extend the tax base in Mozambique from the point of view of raising government revenues and compensation for negative environmental and social externalities. We conclude that in particular a tax on electricity production seems a promising instrument. We estimate annual tax revenues of a 0.1-0.2 US$c/kWh tax on electricity production in the range of US$ 16-84 million during the period 2007-2020. By and large the burden of a tax on electricity production in Mozambique will fall on neighbouring countries due to the large share of electricity generation earmarked for export. We show that the regional electricity market provides ample space to increase electricity prices without compromising Mozambique’s comparative advantage in electricity production.

Bucuane, A.J. and P. Mulder (2009), Expanding exploitation of natural resources in Mozambique: Will it be a blessing or a curse?, in: Brito, L. de, C. Castel-Branco, S. Chichava and A. Fransisco (eds.), Reflecting on Economic Questions, pp. 104-153. Maputo: IESE.

Mozambique has considerable quantities of natural resources, of which the major part is yet to be explored. The Government of Mozambique is determined to extract and export its natural resource potential as fast as possible, supposing that this will positively contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. However, many resource rich countries are among the poorest nations in the world, in spite of decennia-long exploration of their natural wealth. This so-called ‘paradox of plenty’ or ‘resource curse’ raises the question whether the foreseen exploration of natural resources in Mozambique will pose a threat rather than a blessing to its economic development. In this paper we first estimate the potential resource wealth of Mozambique in comparison to other countries. Next, we briefly review the growing body of literature on the existence and determinants of a natural resource curse. Then we evaluate the risk of a resource curse to occur in Mozambique in the (near) future. Finally, we try to come up with suggestions to avert a Mozambican resource curse.

Mulder, P. and J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (2008), Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, in: Witt, U. (ed.), Recent Developments In Evolutionary Economics, vol. 228 in The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics series. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Reprint of: Mulder, P. and J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (2001), Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, Growth and Change, 32, pp. 110-134

Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot (2007), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, in: Bretschger, L. and S. Smulders (eds.), Sustainable Resource Use and Economic Dynamics, pp. 165-190. Dordrecht: Springer

Reprint of: Mulder, P., H.L.F. de Groot (2007), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, Environmental and Resource Economics, 36, pp. 85-112

De Groot, H.L.F., M.W. Hofkes and P. Mulder (2004), A Vintage Model of Technology Diffusion: The effects of learning-by-doing and returns to diversity, in: Brakman and Heijdra (eds), The Monopolistic Competition Revolution after Twenty-Five Years, pp.356-372. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Mulder, P. H.L.F. de Groot and F.A.G. den Butter (2004). De Energie- en Arbeidsproductiviteit van Nederland in Internationaal Perspectief (‘Dutch energy- and Labour-productivity in international perspective’), in: H.R.J. Vollebergh, W. van Groenendaal, M.W. Hofkes and R. Kemp (eds), Milieubeleid, Technologische Ontwikkeling en de Nederlandse Economie, Den Haag, SDU, pp. 101-125.

De Groot, H.L.F., M.W. Hofkes, P. Mulder and J.A. Smulders (2004). Dynamiek van Technologie-Ontwikkeling: Innovatie, Adoptie en Diffusie (‘Dynamics of technology development: innovation, adoption and diffusion’), in: H.R.J. Vollebergh, W. van Groenendaal, M.W. Hofkes and R. Kemp (eds), Milieubeleid en Technologische Ontwikkeling in de Nederlandse Economie, Den Haag, SDU, pp. 45-63.

Working Papers

Mahumane, G.M.D.G. and P. Mulder (2015), Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, Scenarios and Policy Implications, FEWEB Research Memorandum 2015-7, VU University Amsterdam.

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This paper presents the first comprehensive Energy Outlook for Mozambique, a country that since long is one of the poorest nations of the world but since recently also developing into a leading energy producer. We present projections until 2030, based on a newly developed integrated long-run scenario model, new national and regional energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. Our analysis shows an emerging ‘energy-dichotomy’ in Mozambique. On the one hand, the energy sector is characterized by a rapid and huge expansion. Until 2030, exploitation of the country’s reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower is likely to increase primary energy production at least six-fold and probably much more, most of which is destined for export. We show that, as a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets; it may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. On the other hand, our analysis shows that households continue to account for the major part of total energy consumption, with the majority of the population still being deprived from access to modern energy fuels by 2030. Hence, despite the spectacular rise of the extractive industry sector, population growth continues to be a key driver of energy consumption growth in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss the major challenges these findings pose for energy policy in Mozambique.

Mahumane, G.M.D.G. and P. Mulder (2015), Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique, FEWEB Research Memorandum 2015-2, VU University Amsterdam. 

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Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present in this paper the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model makes use of the LEAP framework and is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets. Therefore, a major challenge for energy policy in Mozambique is to strike a balance in meeting domestic and international demand for energy, such that energy production benefits the entire Mozambican population.

Pohl, B. and P. Mulder (2013), Explaining the Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion in Developing Countries, GIGA Working Paper 217/2013.

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In this paper we study the diffusion of non-hydro renewable energy (NHRE) technologies for electricity generation across 108 developing countries between 1980 and 2010. We use two-stage estimation methods to identify the determinants behind the choice of whether or not to adopt NHRE as well as about the amount of electricity to produce from renewable energy sources. We find that NHRE diffusion accelerates with the implementation of economic and regulatory instruments, higher per capita income and schooling levels, and stable, democratic regimes. In contrast, increasing openness and aid, institutional and strategic policy support programs, growth of electricity consumption, and high fossil fuel production appear to delay NHRE diffusion. Furthermore, we find that a diverse energy mix increases the probability of NHRE adoption. Finally, we find weak support for a positive influence of the Kyoto Protocol on NHRE diffusion and no evidence for any influence resulting from financial sector development.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2012), Structural Change and Convergence of Energy Intensity across OECD Countries, 1970-2005, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2012-03-12.

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This paper uses a new dataset derived from a consistent framework of national accounts to compute and evaluate energy intensity developments across 18 OECD countries and 50 sectors over the period 1970−2005. We find that across countries energy intensity levels tend to increase in a fairly wide range of Services subsectors, but decrease in most Manufacturing sectors. A decomposition analysis reveals that changes in the sectoral composition of the economy explain a considerable and increasing part of aggregate energy intensity dynamics. A convergence analysis reveals that only after 1995 cross-country variation in aggregate energy intensity levels clearly tends to decrease, driven by a strong and robust trend break in Manufacturing and enhanced convergence in Services. Moreover, we find evidence for the hypothesis that across sectors lagging countries are catching-up with leading countries, with rates of convergence on average being higher in Services than in Manufacturing. Aggregate convergence patterns are almost exclusively caused by convergence of within-sector energy intensity levels, and not by convergence of the sectoral composition of economies.

Bakens, J., P. Mulder and P. Nijkamp (2012), Economic Impacts of Cultural Diversity in the Netherlands: Productivity, Utility, and Sorting, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2012-03-19.

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This paper identifies the role of cultural diversity in explaining spatial disparities in wages and housing prices across Dutch cities, using unique individual panel data of home owners. We distinguish between the effects of interactions‐based productivity, consumption amenities and sorting of heterogeneous home owners while controlling for interactions between the labor and housing market. We find that an increase in the cultural diversity of the population positively impacts equilibrium wages and housing prices, particularly in the largest and most densely populated cities. This result is largely driven by spatial sorting of individuals in both the labor and housing market. After controlling for home owner heterogeneity we find that increasing cultural diversity no longer impacts local labor markets and negatively impacts local housing markets. The latter result is likely to be driven by a negative causal effect of increased cultural diversity on neighborhood quality that outweighs a positive effect of increased cultural diversity in consumption goods

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2012), Dutch Sectoral Energy Intensity Developments in International Perspective, 1987-2005. Tinbergen Discussion Paper 2012-05-01. 

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This paper makes use of a new dataset to investigate energy intensity developments in the Netherlands over the period 1987–2005. The dataset allows for a comparison with 18 other OECD countries. A key feature of our analysis is that we combine a cross-country perspective with a high level of sectoral detail, covering 49 sectors. Particularly innovative is our evaluation of energy intensity developments in a wide range of Service sectors. We find that across sectors energy intensity levels in the Netherlands on average decreased only marginally, and increased in Services. This performance is in general worse than the OECD average, especially between 1987 and 1995. Changes in the sectoral composition of the economy play an important role in explaining aggregate trends. In the Manufacturing sector about half of the efficiency improvements were undone by a shift towards a more energy-intensive industry structure, while in the Service sector about one-third of the decrease in efficiency was undone by a shift towards a less energy-intensive sector structure.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2011), Energy Intensity across Sectors and Countries: Empirical Evidence 1980–2005, CPB Discussion Paper 171, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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This paper presents stylized facts on energy-intensity developments for 19 OECD countries and 51 sectors over the period 1980−2005. A principal aim of this paper is to introduce and discuss a new database that combines the recently launched „EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts‟ with physical-energy data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). We do so by means of an empirical analysis consisting of the following components at various levels of sectoral detail. First, we document per country the growth rates of energy use, value added and energy intensity (i.e. the ratio of energy use to value added). Second, we compare levels of energy intensity across countries and analyze the evolution of the observed cross-country differences over time. Third, by means of a decomposition analysis we calculate for each country to what extent aggregate energy-intensity trends can be explained from, respectively, shifts in the underlying sectoral structure and efficiency improvements within individual sectors. Finally, we identify issues and areas of research within the field of energy economics where these data may be applied fruitfully.
Data sets available

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2011), Dutch Sectoral Energy Intensity Developments in International Perspective, 1987-2005, CPB Discussion Paper 190, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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This paper makes use of a new dataset to investigate energy intensity developments in the Netherlands over the period 1987-2005, in comparison with 18 other OECD countries. A key feature of our analysis is that we combine this cross-country perspective with a high level of sector detail, covering 51 sectors. Particularly innovative is our evaluation of energy intensity developments in a wide range of Service sectors. We find that between 1987 and 2005 energy intensity in the Netherlands decreased on average with 0.9% points per year at the aggregate economy level and with 0.2% points at the aggregate manufacturing sector level, whereas it increased with 0.4% points at the aggregate Service sector level. This performance is considerably below the OECD average, and has been especially poor between 1987 and 1995. In terms of energy intensity levels, performance of the Netherlands is close to the OECD average at the aggregate economy level and in Manufacturing. In Services, the energy intensity level in the Netherlands was about 50% lower than the OECD average in 1987, but this lead has almost disappeared by 2005. Finally, we find that in the Manufacturing sector, between 1987 and 2005, about half of the energy efficiency improvements were undone by a shift towards a more energy-intensive industry structure, most notably through growth of the Chemical sector. In the Service sector, on the contrary, shifts in the underlying sector structure helped in slowing down energy intensity increase by about one-third between 1987 and 2005.
Data sets available

Mulder, P. (2007). Energy Outlook for Mozambique, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.53E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development.

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Bucuane, A. and P. Mulder (2007). Exploring Natural Resources in Mozambique. Will it be a blessing or a curse?, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.54E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development. Download

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Mozambique has considerable quantities of natural resources, of which the major part is yet to be explored. The Government of Mozambique is determined to extract and export its natural resource potential as fast as possible, supposing that this will positively contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. However, many resource rich countries are among the poorest nations in the world, in spite of decennia-long exploration of their natural wealth. This so-called ‘paradox of plenty’ or ‘resource curse’ raises the question whether the foreseen exploration of natural resources in Mozambique will pose a serious threat rather than a blessing to its economic development. In this paper we first estimate the potential resource wealth of Mozambique in comparison to other countries. Next, we briefly review the growing body of literature on the existence and determinants of a natural resource curse. Then we evaluate the risk of a resource curse to occur in Mozambique in the (near) future. Finally, we try to come up with suggestions to avert a Mozambican resource curse

Bucuane, A. and P. Mulder (2007). Exploring an Electricity Tax on Mega Projects in Mozambique, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.37E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development.

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Mulder, P. and J. Tembe (2006). Rural Electrification in Mozambique. Is it worth the Investment?, DNEAP Discussion Paper No.36E, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development.

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Arndt, C., L. Matsinhe, P. Mulder, E. Paulo, J.E. Van Dunem (2005). O Impacto do Aumento do Preço do Petróleo na Economia Moçambicana (‘Impact of the Oil Price Increase on the Mozambican Economy’), DNEAP Discussion Papers No.19P, Maputo: Ministry of Planning and Development.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2004), Sectoral Energy- and Labour Productivity Convergence, Tinbergen Discussion Paper, nr. 04-003/3, Amsterdam/Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute.

Also as:
Peter Mulder & Henri de Groot (2003). Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence, CPB Discussion Papers 23, The Hague: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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This paper provides an empirical analysis of energy- and labour-productivity convergence at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970-1997. A sigma-convergence analysis shows that the development of cross-country variation in productivity performance depends on the level of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. A beta-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional rather than unconditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states, and that cross-country differences of energy-productivity levels are substantially larger than of labour-productivity levels at all levels of sectoral aggregation. Finally, searching for the fundamentals determining cross-country productivity differentials reveals a positive productivity effect of energy prices and economies of scale in several sectors, while wages, investment share, openness and specialization play only a very limited role in explaining (cross-country differences in) energy- and labour-productivity growth.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2004), Decoupling Economic Growth and Energy Use. An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis for 10 Manufacturing Sectors, Tinbergen Discussion Paper, nr. 04-005/3, Amsterdam/Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute.

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This paper provides an empirical analysis of decoupling economic growth and energy use and its various determinants by exploring trends in energy- and labour productivity across 10 manufacturing sectors and 14 OECD countries for the period 1970-1997. We explicitly aim to trace back aggregate developments in the manufacturing sector to developments at the level of individual subsectors. A cross-country decomposition analysis reveals that in some countries structural changes contributed considerably to aggregate manufacturing energyproductivity growth and, hence, to decoupling, while in other countries they partly offset energy-efficiency improvements. In contrast, structural changes only play a minor role in explaining aggregate manufacturing labour-productivity developments. Furthermore, we find labour-productivity growth to be higher on average than energy-productivity growth. Over time, this bias towards labour-productivity growth is increasing in the aggregate manufacturing sector, while it is decreasing in most manufacturing subsectors.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2004), International comparisons of sectoral energy- and labour- productivity performance. Stylised facts and decomposition of trends, Tinbergen Discussion Paper, nr. 04-007/3, Amsterdam-Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute.

Also as:
Peter Mulder & Henri de Groot (2003). International Comparisons of Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Performance: Stylised Facts and Decomposition of Trends, CPB Discussion Papers 22, The Hague: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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This paper addresses the interplay between economic growth, energy use, change in sectoral composition and technological change, by exploring trends in energy- and labour productivity development for 14 OECD countries and four sectors over the period 1970-1997. A crosscountry decomposition analysis reveals that in some countries structural changes contributed considerably to macroeconomic energy-productivity growth while in other countries they partly offset energy-efficiency improvements. In contrast, structural changes only play a minor role in explaining macroeconomic labour-productivity developments. We also find labour productivity growth to be higher on average than energy productivity growth. Over time, this bias towards labour productivity growth is increasing in Transport, Agriculture and Manufacturing, while it is decreasing in Services.

Miketa, A. and P. Mulder (2003). Energy-Productivity across Developed and Developing Countries in 10 Manufacturing Sectors, IIASA Interim Report IR-03-068, Laxenburg: IIASA.

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This paper provides an empirical analysis of energy-productivity convergence across 56 developed and developing countries, in 10 manufacturing sectors, for the period 1971 to 1995. We find that, except for the non-ferrous metals sector, cross-country differences in absolute energy-productivity levels tend to decline, particularly in the less energyintensive industries. Testing for the catch-up hypothesis using panel data confirms that in all manufacturing sectors energy-productivity growth is, in general, relatively high in countries that initially lag behind in terms of energy-productivity levels. At the same time, cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance seem to be persistent; convergence is found to be country-specific rather than global, with countries converging to different steady states and several failing to catch up. Finally, we find that country-specific factors, such as energy price and investment ratio, do explain the observed cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance, but only to a very limited extent. Hence, further research is needed to identify what accounts for the observed persistence in cross-country energy-productivity differentials.

De Groot, H.L.F., P. Mulder and D.P. van Soest (2002). Subsidising the Adoption of Energy-Saving Technologies: Analyzing the Impact of Uncertainty, Learning and Maturation, OCFEB Research Memorandum, no. 0201, Rotterdam: OCFEB.

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As part of the Kyoto Protocol, many countries have committed themselves to substantially reduce the emission of greenhouse gases within a politically imposed time constraint. Investment subsidies can be an important instrument to stimulate the adoption of energy-saving technologies to achieve emission reduction targets. This paper addresses the impact of adoption subsidies on the amount of energy savings, taking into account both the endogenous and uncertain nature of technological progress. Neglecting these two characteristics of technological progress tends to result in overestimation of the short-run effectiveness of investment subsidies, whereas the longrun effects are ambiguous.

Mulder, P. and J. C.J.M. van den Bergh (1999). Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-038/1, Amsterdam/Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute.

Other

Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (2015), 'We moeten ons niet richten op de armen, maar op de middenklasse', Parool  27-08-2015, Opinie

Steeds weer bevestigt onderzoek de trend in Amsterdam van een tweedeling, waarbij rijken de armen verdringen. Dat beeld behoeft nuancering. Opvallend genoeg gaat het in de discussie over de tweedeling van Amsterdam vrijwel uitsluitend over rijke mensen die arme mensen zouden verdringen. Maar dat valt erg mee. De groep die in Amsterdam in de knel komt zijn niet de armen, maar de middenklasse. Zij zijn te rijk voor een sociale huurwoning, maar te arm om een eengezinswoning te kopen of te huren in de vrije sector. De gemeente en het rijk moeten inderdaad ingrijpen, maar dan door meer huizen te bouwen voor de middenklasse in en vlak om Amsterdam. Kinderen die in mindere buurten opgroeien, staan op achterstand. Gelijkheid van kansen begint dus op basisscholen. Het ligt daarom veel meer voor de hand om die kansen te vergroten via regulering van onderwijs dan via regulering van de woningmarkt. Waarom niet de regel invoeren dat in elke klas op elke school 30 procent van de plekken bestemd zijn voor kinderen van arme ouders? En waarom leerkrachten in arme buurten niet hoger belonen dan leerkrachten in rijke buurten? Investeren in mensen is een betere toekomststrategie dan het reguleren van woonruimte.

Peter Mulder (2013), Recensie van Daron Acemoglu en James Robinson - Waarom sommige landen rijk zijn en andere arm, Nederlands Dagblad 22-03-2013

Waarom zijn sommige landen rijk en andere arm? Dit is misschien wel de grootste vraag in de economie. De Amerikaanse topeconomen Acemoglu en Robinson schrikken niet terug voor een helder antwoord.

Peter Mulder (2012), Recensie van Tomas Sedlacek - De economie van goed en kwaad, Nederlands Dagblad 23-10-2012

We zitten in de ergste economische crisis sinds de jarig dertig van de vorige eeuw, en het einde is nog niet in zicht. In dit boek stelt de Tsjechische econoom Tomas Sedlacek de vragen die je nu overal ziet opduiken.

Peter Mulder (2011), Recensie van Doug Saunders - De trek naar de stad, Nederlands Dagblad maart 2011

Deze eeuw vertrekt naar verwachting een derde deel van de wereldbevolking van dorp naar stad – een paar miljard mensen. In de stad kun je je kleinkinderen tot successvolle mensen laten uitgroeien – in het dorp kun je alleen maar leven... Doug Saunders laat zien hoe dit in zijn werk gaat.

Leve de markt, maar wel in de economie. Nederlands Dagblad 14-05-2010

 

Samenvatting co-referaat bij Groen van Prinstererlezing 2010 door Bob Goudzwaard - Wetenschappelijk Bureau van de ChristenUnie. 

Linda van de Kamp & Peter Mulder (2009), Van de prins geen kwaad, Volkskrant 03-10-2009, Opinie

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Er is toenemend gedoe over het vakantiehuis van de kroonprins. Steeds vaker klinkt hardop de vraag of Willem-Alexander de bouw van zijn vakantievilla aan de Mozambikaanse kust niet beter kan staken vanwege alle problemen die er zouden zijn. Het heeft zelfs geleid tot Kamervragen en een officiële reactie van de minister-president. De affaire zegt echter vooral iets over onze achterhaalde kijk op Afrika en over luie journalistiek.

Mulder, P. (2008), Samaritanendom, Radix 34(3), pp. 146-176.

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In dit essay wordt de stelling verdedigd dat ontwikkelingshulp de armoede in de wereld niet structureel kan terugdringen, en dat hulp daar ook niet op gericht moet zijn. Ontwikkelingshulp mislukt op grote schaal, niet alleen vanwege allerlei missers en wantoestanden in de praktijk van ontwikkelingssamenwerking, maar vooral omdat de dieperliggende oorzaken van armoede in beginsel buiten het bereik van hulporganisaties liggen. Armoede getuigt van gebrekkige economische ontwikkeling, en dit laatste is een complex proces met diepe wortels in een samenleving. Vastgelopen economieën trek je om die reden niet zomaar vlot en zeker niet van buitenaf, nota bene met giften. Een groot deel van de ontwikkelingshulp is daarom gekheid, alle goede bedoelingen ten spijt. Hulporganisaties doen er goed aan zich niet langer in te laten met de illusie van ontwikkeling en vooruitgang maar zich te concentreren op hun kerntaak: goed doen in een kansloze omgeving. Dit vereist kritische zelfreflectie en inkeer, bij hulporganisaties maar ook bij hun donateurs.

Mulder, P. and H.L.F. de Groot (2002). Leren Vereist Investeren, Economisch Statistische Berichten, 85, no.4284, pp. 980-982.

Mulder, P. (2002), Globalisering, of hoe meer mensen meer met elkaar te maken hebben, Radix 28 (2002) pp.159-168.

De Groot, H.L.F. and P. Mulder (2000). Leren, Weten en Vergeten, Economisch Statistische Berichten 85, no.4270, p.687.

De Beer, J., M. Kerssemeeckers, R. Aalbers, H.R.J. Vollebergh, I. Ossokina, P. Mulder and K. Blok (2000), Effectiviteit Energiesubsidies, Report for Werkgroep IBO Energiesubsidies, Utrecht: Ecofys.